SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa dominates coal power generation, representing nearly 80% of coal power capacity in all of Africa and the Middle East. Coal account for above 80% of the energy production in the country. The country is the most coal-reliant economy among the G20 and has the sixth largest coal fleet in the world for operational capacity. Its coal production and consumption are ranked seventh in the world as of 2023, with reported production at 258 million tonnes. More than a quarter of the coal mined in South Africa is exported.

Coal power generation has been declining since 2007, even despite capacity increases since 2015. Approximately 46% of South Africa's current coal power capacity is scheduled to close within the next decade, requiring immediate investments in energy generation to meet national power demand. In 2019, South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) laid out intentions to diversify the country's power mix by 2030. It outlined its goal to decommission over 35,000 megawatts (MW) of coal (of 42,000 MW assumed operating) by 2050. The plan would still allow the country to burn coal with no exit date yet established. However, pressures from environmental lobbying and recent litigation have set a precedent for future investments, requiring projects to complete climate impact assessments before receiving a license. In late 2024, proposed coal capacity in the 2019 IRP was ruled as "unlawful and invalid" in a landmark court case.

South Africa has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050. The challenge of decarbonizing the country’s coal-reliant energy system is made even more difficult by reliability issues plaguing the grid and the dire corruption, sabotage, and financial situation of the state-owned utility Eskom. Amid skyrocketing blackouts in 2022, the South African government weighed delays in retiring some of its existing coal fleet. In 2024 and 2025, an updated draft IRP and a subsequent revision both included scenarios that postponed coal plant retirements. Both IRP drafts were widely criticized for alleged technical flaws and insufficient data.

Under a draft Paris Agreement plan released in March 2021, South Africa planned to cut CO2 emissions by 28% compared to its 2015 pledge, which capped annual emissions at 614 million tonnes. In its most recent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in October 2025, South Africa aimed to limit its annual greenhouse gas emissions within the range of 320-380 Mt CO2eq in 2035.

South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership, launched in November 2021 at COP26, represents an unprecedented opportunity to make progress and a potential model for other nations: an initial US$8.5 billion of international climate finance could support just transition interventions, power sector decarbonization, and economic diversification into future energy sectors, including electric vehicles and green hydrogen. The South African government approved the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan in November 2023.

In 2025, the total operating coal capacity amounted to 45 gigawatts (GW), with an additional 2.5 GW mothballed. A further 1,455 MW has remained at the proposed stage since 2022.