UKRAINE

Ukraine has an old coal fleet with most coal plants over 40 years old, as well as over 10,000 megawatts (MW) of mothballed capacity across several dozen units. The country has no new coal power plants under construction or in planning other than two 330 MW replacement units at one plant, which are presumed to be shelved. Despite recent retrofits to extend the lifetime of several plants, Ukraine's coal capacity has declined slightly over the past two decades as aging plants were taken offline. With essentially no new plants in the pipeline, this trend may be set to continue. Ukraine is estimated to hold some of the largest coal reserves in the world, with most deposits located in the Donbas basin in Eastern Ukraine. Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the conflict with Russian-supported separatists in the Donbas, as well as Russia's invasion in 2022, resulted in coal supply disruptions and energy shortages, particularly in the coal sector. In December 2022, Ukraine’s energy deficit was estimated at around 2.5 GW, but it appeared to be resolved by March 2023. The government called for a “green reconstruction” post-war, ensuring a sustainable and equitable future for all Ukrainians.

In 2021, Ukraine joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance and committed to end coal power by 2035. Under the Paris Agreement, the country aims to reduce its emissions by 65% below 1990 levels by 2030. The commitment is conditional on international assistance, even though it is classified as a developed country by the UN, and on “stable and predictable trade policy and the absence of restrictions and barriers,” a coded reference to the EU’s proposed carbon tariff on certain imports. Its energy market was previously framed as a battle between western investments in renewables and Russian fossil fuel imports. Ukraine is a member of the Energy Community Treaty, which requires members to meet the obligations of the Large Combustion Plants Directive.