INDIA

India ranks second globally for both operating coal-fired capacity and capacity under development, following China. It is also the world’s biggest coal producer and consumer after China. While the nation’s power mix has long been dominated by coal, the share of coal in India's total power generation capacity dipped below 50% in early 2024 as a result of increasing renewable energy capacity.

Despite the recent boost in renewables, India continues to expand its coal fleet, and coal plant retirements have all but come to a halt since 2023; while India’s 2018 National Electricity Plan identified approximately 48 gigawatts (GW) of coal for retirement by 2027, the government appeared to be backtracking on its coal phasedown plans in early 2023 when it advised utilities to hold off on coal-fired power plant retirements until after 2030. Meanwhile, the country continues to encourage the development of new coal plants, with nearly 28 GW under construction and another 92 GW in pre-construction development in the first half of 2025.

India has set an ambitious target to deploy 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030. In 2023, the Central Electricity Authority's National Electricity Plan predicted that coal would comprise less than one-third of the country's total installed capacity by 2031-2032, with non-fossil based energy sources accounting for approximately 68% of the total capacity. This change would be in line with India’s Paris Agreement targets, updated in August 2022, to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030. However, in absolute terms, coal use is expected to increase as the nation’s overall energy demand grows.

The Indian government has committed to “phase down” the use of coal but has not set a formal timeline for when such a phase down in generation or capacity will begin. Instead, the government is planning a coal expansion, saying coal use in the country will likely not peak until 2040. In 2023, the government announced a plan to double coal production by 2030 and add 88 GW of new thermal power capacity by 2032, much of which would be coal. In 2024, the government instituted a new panel to fast-track the development of thermal power projects in order to meet the expected increase in demand by 2032.